Step-by-step · Step-by-step · 8 minute

Step-by-step: one evenin wid $100 pon red

One hundred dolla, five-dolla chip, red evry spin, an a rule fi stop. Spin by spin.

Short ansa

A simulate evenin at a live table: up to 60 spin a $5 pon red fram a $100 budget, wid a $50 stop-loss an a $50 stop-win. Di stop-loss end it at spin 36. Di session show wah variance look like as it a happen, an why di stop rule a di only decision weh did matter.

budget
$100
stake
$5 pon red
stop rule
−$50 / +$50
expected loss
$8.11 ova 60 spin

Di plan

Wah a di bes roulette strategy wid $100? Nuh one weh bring down di average cost. Dat budget a money wi can lose; wah wi choose a di stake an di stop rule dem. Stake $5, 5% a di budget, an dat gi wi bout twenty losin bet inna wi hand. Stop-lossstrategy demStop-lossA amount a loss weh yuh set fram bifo, an wen yuh reach it yuh end di session (di loss weh mek yuh stop).Read di whole ting → at −$50 an stop-winstrategy demStop-winA profit target weh yuh set fram bifo, an wen yuh reach it yuh end di session (di win weh mek yuh stop).Read di whole ting → at +$50, an wi decide dem now. Expected lossmathsExpected lossExpected value times all di money yuh bet; di average amount yuh lose ova a session or a period (di loss yuh fi expec pon average).Read di whole ting → ova 60 spin a 60 × $5 / 37 = $8.11. Wi expec fi leave wid bout $92, an fi deh anywhere between $20 an $170 wid reasonable probabilitymathsProbabilityDi chance fi a result, fram 0 to 1 or 0% to 100%. One numba: 1/37 = 2.70%.Read di whole ting →.

Spin 1–20

R B B R R 0 B R R B R B B B R R B R B R. Ten redbet demRedEven-money bet pon di 18 red numba. Inna French: rouge.Read di whole ting →, nine blackbet demBlackEven-money bet pon di 18 black numba. Inna French: noir.Read di whole ting →, one zeropon di wheelZeroDi one green pocket weh no even-money, dozen or column bet nuh cover; a weh di house edge come fram. Nex name: single zero, 0.Read di whole ting →: +$50 − $45 − $5 = $0. Balance $100. Di zero at spin 6 cost a chipmoney mattaChipA token weh stand fi a fix amount, weh yuh put pon di betting layout fi mek a bet. Nex name: check.Read di whole ting → an, at 1/37, it come likkle early. Nutten yah strange. Wi level afta twenty spin.

spinresultresult a di betbalance
1red+$5$105
2–3black, black−$10$95
4–5red, red+$10$105
6zero−$5$100
7black−$5$95
8–9red, red+$10$105
10–14B R B B B−$15$90
15–16red, red+$10$100
17–20B R B R$0$100
Simulate sequence fram a fair wheel. Fi yuh one wi different inna evry detail an inna none a di statistics.

Spin 21–36

B B B B B R B B R B B R B B B B. Five black fi start, thirteen inna all: tree red, thirteen black, +$15 − $65 = −$50. Balance $50. Dis a di stretch weh mek people change dem bet, double up or switch colour. Di probability fi get 13 or more black inna 16 spin unda 1%; it did haffi happen to smaddy tonight. Wi down $50 fram di start, di stop-loss kick in at spin 36, an wi get up.

Thirteen black inna sixteen spin, an di stop-loss reach at spin 36.

Spin 37–60, widout wi

R B R B, den R R B R 0 R B R R B R R B B R R B R B R. Fourteen red, nine black, one zero: if wi did stay, +$70 − $45 − $5 = +$20 an a balance a $70 at spin 60. Thirty-six spin at a live table a bout 45 minute. Wi leave wid $50, down $50, gainst a expected −$4.86 fi 36 spin. Thirteen red, twenty-two black, one zero.

Di evenin, an eleven more weh coulda happenresult versus di start
+$190$0−$100+$80−$500125250375500spinresult
1,000 session × 500 spin · violet p10/p25/p75/p90, light blue median, 82 faint sample · move ova di chart fi see di quantile dem at a spin
  • p10 −$100
  • p25 −$100
  • median −$100
  • p75 +$0
  • p90 +$70
1,000 session × 500 spin · y-axis cut to di 1st–99th percentile (di extreme dem: −$100 to +$300) · 500 spin · $5 base · even-money bet
One a dem a more or less fi wi evenin. Di res a di same plan pon odda night. A $50 stop-loss woulda end two a dem early; a $50 stop-win woulda end one.

Wah happen

Wi pay bout $5 fi 45 minute a roulette, plus $45 a bad luck. Thirteen red inna 36 spin deh way below di 17.5 wi did expec, an nine red short a di black dem a −$45 bifo di zero. VariancemathsVarianceA measure a ow wide di result dem spread roun di expected value. High fi straight up, low fi even-money bet.Read di whole ting → decide di evenin; di stake an di spin dem decide di price; di stop-loss decide wen it done. If wi did stay, wi woulda get back $20 by spin 60, an dat nuh a reason fi stay: di comeback a did variance too, an suh di black run weh come bifo it.

Wah wi neva do

Change di stake afta a loss (dat a a progressionstrategy demProgressionAny rule weh change di stake based pon di result dem weh pass. Negative progression raise it afta loss, positive progression afta win.Read di whole ting →, an it push up turnovermoney mattaTurnoverAll di money yuh bet ova a session or a period, countin di winnins yuh bet again (all di money yuh bet, roun afta roun). Nex name: handle, action.Read di whole ting →). Switch colour afta di black run (di odds same way). Stay pass 60 spin cause wi did “nearly even” (dat a di stop-loss a get renegotiate). Bet di dozenbet demDozen1–12, 13–24 or 25–36, pay 2:1.Read di whole ting → weh “neva come up” (same edge, different shape). Evry one a dem woulda change di shape a di evenin an none woulda change di expected cost.

Question dem

Wah mek $5 an nuh $10?

Twenty chip inna yuh hand instead a ten. Di evenin las longer; di cost fi each spin cut inna half.

A French table woulda help?

Expected loss $4.05 instead a $8.11. Yes.

Di black run did a sign?

A nutten. Thirteen black inna sixteen spin happen bout one evenin outta 125.

Sumting fi laugh

Di stake an di spin dem set di price. Di wheel set di mood.

Di stake an di spin dem set di price. Di wheel set di mood.

Source dem

  1. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Chapter 13, roulette.
wi check it 2026-09-28model: European wheel, single zeroow wi work it out ↗source dem ↗