Myth: numba get “due”

Wah dem claim

Casino show di las 20 to 500 result an often mark “cold” numba weh nuh hit fi a while. Playa read di board, see seh 17 nuh show up fi 150 spin, an bet it cause it mus be due. Di reasonin a dat inna di long run evry numba hit 1/37 a di time, suh a numba weh behind mus catch up.

Why it wrong

Spin independent. Di ballgearBallDi likkle ball weh di dealer fling roun di track di opposite way to di rotor. Modern ball mek outta ivorine or Teflon, 18–21 mm.Read di whole ting → nuh know seh 17 nuh show up, an di pocketgearPocketOne a di 37 compartment wid numba pon di rotor. Nex name: slot, cup.Read di whole ting → same size it did be. Di long-run share come close by dilution, nuh by correction: afta anodda 10,000 spin di 150-spin gap a jus a roundin error, nuh cause 17 hit extra often but cause di sample grow. Di law a big numbamathsLaw a big numbaDi average a independent result dem come closer an closer to di expected value as di numba a try dem grow (di more spin, di closer to average).Read di whole ting → nuh need nuh numba fi catch up; it only need di pas up an down dem fi get small compare to di total.

Why it feel right

Cause inna evry odda part a life, wen sumting nuh come, it mean it soon come: a bus weh nuh come fi twenty minute more likely fi come inna di nex five. Dat a cause bus run pon a schedule. Roulette nuh have nuh schedule; it have a probabilitymathsProbabilityDi chance fi a result, fram 0 to 1 or 0% to 100%. One numba: 1/37 = 2.70%.Read di whole ting →, an a probability nuh a quota. Di gut feelin good fi most a di worl an wrong fi di wheel.

Di test

Write down a hundred “cold” numba fram result board an bet each one fi di nex 37 spin. Di hit rate wi be 1/37 evry spin, di same as fi any numba yuh pick at random, give or tek noise. Di result board a a description a di pas. It cyaan predict nutten fi a fair wheel, an pon a bias wheellabBias wheelA wheel weh have physical defect weh mek some pocket more likely dan 1/37. It rare, an yuh can only find it out wid thousands a spin weh yuh write dung.Read di whole ting → (weh woulda need tousands a spin fi prove) a di hot numbamyth demHot numbaA numba weh come up more dan expected lately. Pon a fair wheel it nuh predict nutten.Read di whole ting →, nuh di cold one dem, woulda be di one fi bet.

Ow big di sample size fi beRoulette result: ow fi read di board

Di backwards myth

“Seventeen hot, bet it” a di same mistake wid di sign flip. Both belief have di same expected valuemathsExpected valueDi average result pon evry bet inna di long run. −1/37 a di stake fi evry standard European bet.Read di whole ting → as fi close yuh yeye an point: −2.70% a di stake. Pon di Demo Game, run di history an count ow often a cold numbamyth demCold numbaA numba weh nuh come up fi nuff spin. Pon a fair wheel it nuh tell yuh nutten bout di spin dem weh a come.Read di whole ting → hit inna di nex 37 spin; di ansa a roun 63.7%, exactly like fi any odda numba.

Question dem